PLEA Network

13 September 2018, The Guardian, Climate change means Hurricane Florence will dump 50% more rain. Scientific study finds diameter of storm heading for US east coast will be 50 miles wider due to human-caused warming of planet. Hurricane Florence is set to bring 50% more rainfall to the US east coast due to human-induced climate change, according to a landmark forecast that has outlined the influence of warming temperatures upon the looming storm. An attribution study by scientists ahead of Florence’s landfall, expected in North Carolina on Thursday, found that the storm will be about 50 miles (80km) larger in diameter than it would be if human activity had not warmed the planet. The hurricane is expected to bring about 50% more precipitation, delivering as much as 20in (51cm) of rainfall in coastal areas, due to climate change. The forecast was completed by researchers at Stony Brook University and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. “Dangerous climate change is here, it’s not a problem for future generations,” said Michael Wehner, staff scientist at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. “These risks have been permanently increased and we have to accept that fact.” Previous attribution studies have looked at the impact of climate change on hurricanes after the storms occur, such as Hurricane Harvey, which researchers said had three times more rainfall than it would have done without global warming when it crunched into Texas last year. But this is the first such attribution made before a storm actually reaches the shoreline. “We are now confident enough to make forecasts rather than hindcasts,” said Wehner. Scientists were previously reluctant to link individual storms, wildfires or heatwaves to the background trend of climate change. However, the field of attribution science has advanced rapidly, to the point where researchers now feel able to ascertain a level of influence before a disaster even unfolds. “The idea we can’t attribute individual events to climate change is out of date, it’s just no longer true,” said Wehner. “We’ve reached the point where we can say this confidently.” Read more here