Category Archives: Security & Conflict

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11 September 2015, The Independent, Refugee crisis: Is climate change affecting mass migration? John Kerry painted an apocalyptic vision of climate change last week as he addressed a global warming conference in Alaska. “You think migration is a challenge in Europe today because of extremism, wait until you see what happens when there’s an absence of water, an absence of food, or one tribe fighting against another for mere survival,” the US secretary of state warned. Few experts would argue with Kerry’s analysis of the future, but some would argue his vision is already upon us. The current refugee crisis marks a watershed moment in the history of global warming because it’s the first wave of emigration to be explicitly linked to climate change, according to one leading scientist, who predicts rises in temperature and increasingly extreme weather will unleash many more mass movements of people in the future. Professor Richard Seager acknowledges that there is much more to the Syrian uprising than the climate, but says that global warming played a key role in creating the conditions that fuelled the civil war behind the refugee emergency. “Syria was destabilised by 1.5 million migrants from rural communities fleeing a three-year drought that was made more intense and persistent by human-driven climate change, which is steadily making the whole eastern Mediterranean and Middle East region even more arid,” says Professor Seager, of Columbia University in New York, who published a report into the role of climate change in the Syrian conflict in March. Read More here

Beyond the fighting and fanaticism, another long-term threat menaces the world’s troubled regions.

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4 August 2015, RTCC, Russia lays claim to vast Arctic territories. Renewed bid for oil-rich polar region comes as US president Obama plans climate change warning at Arctic summit: Russia has submitted a claim to the UN for 1.2 million square kilometres – an area larger than France and Germany – of Arctic territory. Citing studies of the extent of the continental shelf, Moscow is seeking to extend its sovereignty over much of the North Pole. A similar bid in 2001 was rejected, but the foreign ministry says it has fresh data. It conflicts with a claim filed by Denmark in December 2014, which is still under consideration. Canada is also expected to make a pitch in the coming months, although that could be held up by federal elections in October. Robert Huebert, a Canadian expert on the Arctic and international relations, told RTCC other countries were likely to welcome Russia “playing by the rules” – in contrast to its military incursion into the Ukraine. It comes ahead of a key summit of Arctic powers, at which US president Barack Obama is set to highlight the threat posed by climate change. Pentagon officials have warned that the US military is ill-equipped to deal with emergencies in the harsh polar conditions as global warming opens it up to oil exploration and shipping. The area claimed by Russia is estimated to cover 594 oil fields and 159 gas fields, the Barents Observer reported, as well as nickel and gold deposits. Read More here

 

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23 July 2015, Tomgram, The Pivot to Eurasia. Pepe Escobar offers another kind of lens-widening exercise when it comes to the Iranian deal.  He focuses on a subject that Washington has yet to fully absorb: changing relations in Eurasia.  Few have noticed, but while the Vienna deal was being negotiated, Russia and China, countries the Pentagon has just officially labeled as “threats,” have been moving mountains (quite literally in some cases) to integrate ever larger parts of that crucial land mass, that “world island,” into a vast economic zone that, if all goes as they wish, will be beyond Washington’s power and control.  This is a remarkable development that, despite the coming two months of sound and fury about Iran, won’t be at the top of any news report, which is why you need a website like TomDispatch to keep up with the times. Read More here
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1 July 2015, The Guardian, Climate change a security risk second only to terrorism, says defence report. Defence white paper consultation report flags consequences of environmental pressures as a significant security risk for Australia. The Abbott government’s energy white paper made headlines for its curiousreluctance to mention climate change – but the looming defence white paper may prove to be a different story. A report on community consultations associated with the defence white paper flags the consequences of climate change, extreme weather events and environmental pressures as a significant security risk for Australia – second only to the risks posed by terrorism. “Many people suggested [climate change] would lead to an increased need for humanitarian and disaster relief activities, including by armed forces,” the report released on Wednesday said. “Some people also noted that climate change and resource stresses, such as food and water shortages, could drive unregulated cross-border movements of people.” The consultations also unearthed “considerable interest in evolving the ADF [Australian defence force] to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions and manage its environmental impact.” Read More here