30 October 2015, Carbon Brief, UN report: Climate pledges fall short of cheapest route to 2C limit. Low ambition in countries’ climate pledges means avoiding dangerous warming will be harder and more costly than it could have been, according to new UN analysis. Today’s synthesis report, from the UN’s climate body (UNFCCC), aggregates the 146Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) that had been received by 1 October. It says emissions in 2030 would exceed a cost-effective path to 2C, the internationally agreed safety limit. UNFCCC executive secretary Christiana Figueres said the pledges, if implemented, would reduce expected warming of 4-5C to around 2.7C. While the ambition is too low to avoid 2C, she added that current pledges are a “foundation on which even higher ambition can be built”. Carbon Brief looks at the numbers behind the UN’s INDC report and what they mean for 2C. Pile of pledges The UNFCCC has aggregated the impact of 146 INDCs, which together cover all developed nations, three quarters of developing nations and 86% of global greenhouse gas emissions. After the 1 October cut-off for the report, the pledge count has risen to 156, covering 92% of emissions. Of the 146 pledges assessed, 127 offer quantified targets to tackle emissions. Some 59 of these targets are set relative to business as usual emissions, while 31 set absolute goals. Another eight pledge to reduce emissions intensity and three offer peak emissions years. The pile of pledges to limit emissions has therefore more than doubled in size, the UNFCCC says, compared to the 61 parties that had previously made commitments for the years up to 2020. More than half of the INDCs say they will use, or are considering using market based mechanisms. The UNFCCC also breaks down parties’ priorities, as they appear in the INDCs (chart below). Read More here
Category Archives: PLEA Network
26 October 2015, Carbon Brief, Old battlelines resurface as countries meet for last time ahead of Paris climate summit. Countries have completed the last round of negotiations before a landmark meeting in Paris in December, where they have agreed to sign a new UN agreement on climate change. Despite the urgency, the week produced little consensus, with issues such as finance proving fractious till the end. Nonetheless, parties produced a new draft text, which will form the basis of the final negotiations in Paris. The document does little to narrow down the options for the final deal, but crystallizes the key debates that negotiators and ministers will attempt to resolve in just over a month’s time. Christiana Figueres, the executive secretary of the UNFCCC, told the Chatham House climate conference in London today that the new text was “now party owned” and, as a result, was “not biased, but balanced”. Read More here
26 October 2015, Renew Economy, Paris climate talks: Now it’s up to Turnbull to save the planet. The last official round of negotiations before the Paris climate change talks have broken up in Bonn, with some progress made but a global climate deal still needing fresh impetus from political leaders to put the world on a course to rapidly decarbonise the global economy. In Bonn, after a week of talks, a 20-page text was expanded to 63 pages, and will need to be cut back. But at least there appears to be agreement on what needs to be resolved. The principal blockages remain around the scale of ambition, and on issues such as finance and the concept of “loss and damage”. The UN has what it says is a “manageable” text and a good “starting point” for negotiations. The text, say observers, has been expanded as each country or bloc inserts their own “bargaining” chip. They say it is now time for the leaders to step in. Which is why the success or failure of the Paris talks will depend on the likes of Australian prime minister Malcolm Turnbull, the newly elected Canadian PM Justin Trudeau, and of course the major players in the world economy – US president Barack Obama, China’s Xi Jinping, India’s Rajendrah Modi, and the European Union. Over the next few weeks a series of meetings will be held to try to resolve some of those issues. A pre-Paris ministerial meeting will take place in the French capital from November 8-10, which will be attended by environment minister Greg Hunt. Read More here
26 October 2015, Climate Institute, Over the weekend the last round of negotiations on the Paris climate change agreements concluded. The current draft agreement and supporting decisions is available here. Beyond the drama and theatrics of the Bonn meeting, countries left with draft agreements that can form the basis of a credible outcome in Paris. Embedded in the draft are the core elements of an outcome in Paris that reinforce the signal to business that the era of unabated fossil fuel use is at an end. However, progress on the substance of the agreements was mixed and clear political direction from ministers to officials is needed to pick up the pace in the final sprint to Paris. Brinkmanship and negotiation tactics will not deliver in Paris, but political leadership can. This highlights the importance of upcoming political meetings between leaders at the G20, APEC and CHOGM, and the pre-COP ministerial meeting in early November. On the specifics of the current draft, against The Climate Institute’s benchmarks for success in Paris: Read More here