Impacts Observed & Projected – Page 127

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23 July 2015, New York Times, Whiplash Warning When Climate Science is Publicized Before Peer Review and Publication: The study is “Ice Melt, Sea Level Rise and Superstorms: Evidence from Paleoclimate Data, Climate Modeling, and Modern Observations that 2°C Global Warming is Highly Dangerous.” The 66-page “discussion paper” (the authors’ description) was posted Thursday in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions, the discussion forum of the European Geosciences Union journal Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. The paper was was written by 17 prominent climate, ice and ocean scientists, led by James E. Hansen, the pioneering climatologist who since 2007 has argued that most of his peers have been too reticent in their projections of the possible pace of sea-level rise in a warming world. It is a sweeping and valuable cross-disciplinary description of ways in which climate and ocean dynamics, pushed by the planet’s human-amplified greenhouse effect, could accelerate sea level rise far beyond the range seen as plausible in the last report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the most recent review of what leading experts on sea level think, this 2014 paper: “Expert assessment of sea-level rise by AD 2100 and AD 2300.” Read More here

22 July 2015, Climate News Network, Global warming’s record-breaking trend continues: Detailed update by hundreds of scientists on climate indicators in 2014 reveals highest recorded rises in temperatures, sea levels and greenhouse gases. Forget talk of a slowdown in global warming. Scientists say the climate is heading smartly in the opposite direction, with 2014 proving to be a record-breaking year. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), one of the most respected sources of climate science, says that last year “the most essential indicators of Earth’s changing climate continued to reflect trends of a warming planet”. Some − including rising land and ocean temperatures, sea levels and greenhouse gases − reached record highs. The authoritative report by the NOAA’s Centre for Weather and Climate at the National Centres for Environmental Information (NCEI), published by the American Meterological Society, draws on contributions from 413 scientists in 58 countries to provide a detailed update on global climate indicators. “The variety of indicators shows us how our climate is changing, not just in temperature but from the depths of the oceans to the outer atmosphere,” says Thomas R. Karl, director of the NCEI. Read More here

21 July 2015, The Guardian, Arctic sea ice volume showed strong recovery in 2013, Cooler temperatures revived sea ice levels suggesting a rapid recovery was possible if global warming was curbed, scientists say: Ice in the Arctic staged a surprise revival in 2013, bucking the long-term trend of decline, according to the first analysis of the entire ice cap’s volume. The revival was the result of cooler temperatures that year and suggests that, if global warming was curbed, the Arctic might recover more rapidly than previously thought. The shrinking Arctic ice cap is one of the best known impacts of climate change. The indication that it could be reversible is rare good news for a region where climate change has driven up temperatures far faster than the global average.

The extent of Arctic ice has shrunk by 40% since the late 1970s, when satellite measurements began. But getting comprehensive data on the thickness of the ice, rather than just its area, was difficult until the European Space Agency launched the Cryosat satellite in 2010. The satellite’s 88 million measurements, analysed in Nature Geoscience, show that from 2010-12 the Arctic ice volume fell by 14%, in step with the warming trend of the last few decades. But in 2013, the ice volume jumped up by 41%. “It’s fair to say that none of us were really expecting that,” said Rachel Tilling, at University College London and who led the study. But she dismissed the idea of a wider recovery of the ice cap, saying that climate change is still driving average temperatures up, despite significant variation from one year to the next. “It was a cold year – that happens.” In fact, while colder than recent years, the temperature in 2013 would have been regarded as normal as recently as the late 1990s. “This allowed thick sea ice to persist northwest of Greenland because there were fewer days when it could melt,” said Tilling. The research is significant as it shows the Arctic ice cap may be more resilient than expected. Tilling said: “You see Arctic sea ice as dwindling and in decline, but then there is a cold year and you get some of the ice back. It shows there is hope for Arctic sea ice, if you can turn the clock back to colder temperatures, which would need huge reductions in carbon emissions.” Read More here

21 July 2015, The Conversation, The march of the king crabs: a warning from Antarctica: Changing wildlife: this article is part of a series looking at how key species such as bees, insects and fish respond to environmental change, and what this means for the rest of the planet. Hundreds of metres below the surface of the freezing ocean surrounding Antarctica, the seafloor is teeming with life. The animals living there have no idea that an army is on the brink of invading their tranquil environment. The army is composed of king crabs. Until 2003, there were no crabs in this fragile Antarctic ecosystem. Now, driven by warming waters, their arrival heralds a major upset. The unique communities living on the continental shelf off Antarctica are found in no other place on Earth. Delicate brittle stars, beautiful sea stars, vibrant sea lilies, and giant sea spiders are among the spectacular inhabitants found there. The animals live side by side, with almost no predators to upset the balance. For millions of years, the cold water temperatures in the Antarctic have stopped most predators from surviving in this harsh environment. But this situation is rapidly changing. Read More here

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