16 December 2015, The Conversation, Declining rainfall in parts of Australia, but still plenty of water available: BOM report. The Millennium Drought ended more than five years ago, but several years of below-average rainfall and El Niño have brought drought back to many parts of Australia. Our latest report on water in Australia shows rainfall is continuing to decline in eastern Australia and increase in the north. However in urban areas, where water use has not changed significantly since the Millennium Drought, more water is available for use thanks to technologies such as desalination and recycling. In a recent article on The Conversation, the Bureau of Meteorology put the case that Australia can now better manage water resources using new water information capability. Last week the Bureau released a new assessment report on our national water availability and use. Water in Australia 2013–14 examines climatic conditions and the physical hydrology to create the most recent national assessment of Australia’s water resources. Access the main findings here
Category Archives: Impacts Observed & Projected
16 December 2015, CSIRO ECOS CSIRO and Ngadju tackle bushfires in the Great Western Woodlands. Old and new ways of fire management are coming together to help protect one of the most unique woodlands on the planet. Members of the Ngadju community began working with CSIRO about four years ago to help prevent fires in the Great Western Woodlands (GWW) in south-western Australia. The GWW is the largest remaining tract of dry climate woodland on Earth. The region receives as little as 250 mm rain per year. Owing to the variable rainfall and lack of readily accessible groundwater suitable for livestock, much of the region has remained virtually unchanged since European settlement. However during recent years, the GWW has experienced an increase in the frequency of large, intense wildfires causing fire-sensitive old-growth woodlands to be lost at an alarming rate. Leslie Schultz from Ngadju Conservation believes climate change is contributing to the increase in fires. “The heat we get now is harsher and when it does come, there’s less rain—this can only spell trouble for the Woodlands,” he said. Les said the relationship between Ngadju and CSIRO was born from his own experience of “burning off country”—something he learnt from his elders. “We need to control the country so it doesn’t control us,” Les said. “We want to incorporate our traditional land management methods. We managed our country not with rakes, shovels and bulldozers but with fire.” The insight and the benefits of utilising Indigenous fire knowledge was no more apparent than during the recent devastating bushfires in Western Australia. These fires damaged large areas of the GWW directly. In the nearby community of Esperance one fire led to the loss of four lives, with reportedly more than 280,000 hectares of farmland burnt, along with houses, sheds, machinery and almost 5,000 livestock. Ngadju mobilised to help fight these fires and provided valuable insight into the current landscape. They also currently operate a small ranger team in the GWW and undertake a mix of contract land management. Read More here
15 December 2015, YALE Climate Connections, More Glum News on Arctic Warming. Arctic’s trailing climate indicators are seen as the leading indicators for climate elsewhere on Earth. News from the Arctic hasn’t gotten any better in the 10 years since NOAA began producing an annual Arctic Report Card, and this year’s collection of results and essays is no exception. NOAA released its latest report December 15 at the meeting of the American Geophysical Union in San Francisco. “The Arctic is warming twice as fast as other parts of the planet,” said Rick Spinrad, NOAA chief scientist, adding “what happens in the Arctic doesn’t stay in the Arctic.” The average Arctic temperature change, 2.3 degrees F (1.3 degrees C) above average, continues to outpace change in the rest of the world, a phenomenon known as “Arctic amplification.” Since the beginning of the 20th century, Arctic warming is now a hefty 5.4 degrees F (3.0 degrees C), leading to significant changes to the region. “One could argue that the trailing indicators in the Arctic are the leading indicators for the rest of the climate,” Spinrad said. Two items from the report, which was written by 72 authors from 11 different countries, were highlighted here: a mysterious browning of Arctic tundra, and the impact of change on walruses. “Greenness” – a measure of photosynthetic activity by satellites — has been declining since 2001 (see Figure below), with a sharp drop-off in the past two to four years, running counter to the notion that more carbon dioxide is unequivocally good for plant life. “We don’t have an answer yet” to the declining greenness, said Howard Epstein, a scientist from the University of Virginia. “A drop in greenness for any given year isn’t alarming, or even two years in a row.” But four years makes for a noticeable trend. Read more here
11 December 2015, The Conversation, Climate and the rise and fall of civilizations: a lesson from the past. 2015 will likely be the hottest year on record, beating the previous record set only in 2014. It is also likely to be the first year the global average temperature reaches 1℃ above pre-industrial temperatures (measured from 1880-1899). Global warming is raising temperatures, and this year’s El Niño has pushed temperatures higher still. Although 2015 is unusually hot, 1℃ symbolically marks the halfway point to 2℃, widely considered to be the threshold of “dangerous” climate change. In fact an additional 0.5-1℃ is actually masked by sulphur aerosols which we have added to the atmosphere alongside greenhouse gases. A temperature level of 1℃ (above pre-industrial levels) is similar to or warmer than the peak temperatures of the early Holocene epoch approximately 8,000-7,200 years ago. Studies of the early Holocene provide clues to what was such a world like. The climate roller-coaster The last ice age (or Last Glacial Maximum) peaked around 26,000 years ago. The earth warmed over the coming millennia, driven by an increase in radiation from the sun due to changes in the earth’s orbit (the Milankovic cycles) amplified by CO₂ released from warming water, which further warmed the atmosphere. But even as the earth warmed it was interrupted by cooler periods known as “stadials”. These were caused by melt water from melting ice sheets which cool large regions of the ocean. Marked climate variability and extreme weather events during the early Holocene retarded development of sustainable agriculture. Sparse human settlements existed about 12,000 – 11,000 years ago. The flourishing of human civilisation from about 10,000 years ago, and in particular from 7,000 years ago, critically depended on stabilisation of climate conditions which allowed planting and harvesting of seed and growing of crops, facilitating growth of villages and towns and thereby of civilisation. Read More here