3 November 2015, Bloomberg View, What Economists Don’t Get About Climate Change. Economists tend to see climate change as a big optimization problem: Weigh the potential costs of future disasters against the benefits of fossil-fueled economic growth, and find a price of carbon that will balance the two. Unfortunately, it’s an illusory goal. The Cost of Carbon Consider, for example, a recent study by Yale University’s Kenneth Gillingham and colleagues. Using a collection of so-called “integrated” models of climate and the economy, they seek to get a better handle on how various uncertainties — in weather, population growth and technological development — might affect the price that policy makers should put on carbon. Their conclusion: No matter what happens, the optimal price in 2020 would probably be no more than about $50 per ton. The paper’s appearance may be timed to influence policy makers at the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Paris, which begins at the end of this month. It really shouldn’t, because it feigns certainty in areas where none is to be had. Granted, such integrated models include some realistic climate physics and economics. Yet their builders inevitably face crucial questions about which we know very little. For example, just how sensitive are global temperatures to the addition of further carbon dioxide? And how much economic damage can we expect from a temperature rise of, say, 2 degrees or 5 degrees? Read More here
Category Archives: Global Action Inaction
2 November 2015, Climate News Network, Cash is key to Paris climate talks success. Former key figure in UN climate change policy-making says economists now see that development without destroying the environment is the only way forward. In a world entirely divorced from the politics and rhetoric surrounding the continuing climate change negotiations, countries are quietly getting on with rapid development combined with environmental protection. Yvo de Boer, former executive secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, has found renewed hope and a different perspective as the Director-General of the Global Green Growth Institute, which he is running from Seoul in South Korea. “People in Asia have moved away from the idea that development comes first and then we can then worry about the environment,” he says. “Here, there is terrible poverty, but they have realised that the development, social inclusion and protecting the environment must go hand in hand.” He said it was clear from talking to economists at the International Monetary Fund and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development in Paris that they too realise that clean development is not just the best way forward but the only way. Read More here
30 October 2015, Carbon Pulse, INDCs will fail to halt global emissions growth by 2030, but door still open to 2C -UNFCCC. INDCs from the 147 parties submitted by Oct. 1 will result in global emissions continuing to rise over the next 15 years though keep the door open to reaching the 2C temperature rise goal, the UNFCCC said in a report on Friday summarising the submitted pledges. The aggregate report, published on the UN website, was requested by almost 200 nations ahead of the December UN climate talks, without any scrutiny of individual INDCs. It found that with the INDCs fulfilled, global emissions would climb to 55 billion tonnes in 2025 and 57 billion tonnes in 2030, though growth in emissions is expected to slow down by a third in the 2010–2030 period compared to the period 1990–2010. This would mean that by 2030 the world had reached 75% of the cumulative emission budget since 2011 that UN-backed scientists say is consistent with the 2C goal. “Fully implemented these plans together begin to make a significant dent in the growth of greenhouse gas emissions: as a floor they provide a foundation upon which ever higher ambition can be built,” said Christiana Figueres, executive secretary of the UNFCCC, presenting the report at a press conference in Berlin. Read More here
30 October 2015, Carbon Brief, UN report: Climate pledges fall short of cheapest route to 2C limit. Low ambition in countries’ climate pledges means avoiding dangerous warming will be harder and more costly than it could have been, according to new UN analysis. Today’s synthesis report, from the UN’s climate body (UNFCCC), aggregates the 146Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) that had been received by 1 October. It says emissions in 2030 would exceed a cost-effective path to 2C, the internationally agreed safety limit. UNFCCC executive secretary Christiana Figueres said the pledges, if implemented, would reduce expected warming of 4-5C to around 2.7C. While the ambition is too low to avoid 2C, she added that current pledges are a “foundation on which even higher ambition can be built”. Carbon Brief looks at the numbers behind the UN’s INDC report and what they mean for 2C. Pile of pledges The UNFCCC has aggregated the impact of 146 INDCs, which together cover all developed nations, three quarters of developing nations and 86% of global greenhouse gas emissions. After the 1 October cut-off for the report, the pledge count has risen to 156, covering 92% of emissions. Of the 146 pledges assessed, 127 offer quantified targets to tackle emissions. Some 59 of these targets are set relative to business as usual emissions, while 31 set absolute goals. Another eight pledge to reduce emissions intensity and three offer peak emissions years. The pile of pledges to limit emissions has therefore more than doubled in size, the UNFCCC says, compared to the 61 parties that had previously made commitments for the years up to 2020. More than half of the INDCs say they will use, or are considering using market based mechanisms. The UNFCCC also breaks down parties’ priorities, as they appear in the INDCs (chart below). Read More here