8 June 2017, The Conversation, What is a pre-industrial climate and why does it matter? Over the past few days there has been a lot of talk about the Paris climate agreement, from which the United States is planning to withdraw. Although this is a setback, there is still near-complete consensus from the world’s governments that a strong effort to tackle climate change is needed. The Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming relative to a pre-industrial baseline. Its precise commitment is: Holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2℃ above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5℃ above pre-industrial levels, recognising that this would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change. But this begs the question: what are “pre-industrial levels”? Clearly, if we’re aiming to limit global warming to 1.5℃ or 2℃ above a certain point, we need a common understanding of what we’re working from. But the Paris Agreement doesn’t provide a definition. This becomes key as governments expect climate scientists to coherently compare different plans to reach their Paris targets. It’s crucial to be clear on what researchers mean when we say “pre-industrial”, and what assumptions our projections are based on. Of course, as the chart below shows, no matter which baseline we use it’s clear there’s been a drastic rise in global temperature over the last century. Read More here
Category Archives: Global Action Inaction
28 May 2017, The Guardian, Australia will still support Paris climate deal if Trump pulls out, Frydenberg says. The Turnbull government will support the Paris agreement on climate change regardless of whether or not the US president, Donald Trump, pulls out, the environment minister, Josh Frydenberg, has signalled. Trump upset world leaders on the weekend by refusing, at the conclusion of the G7 summit in Italy, to declare his support for the UN’s landmark treaty signed in Paris in 2015. Despite two days of urging from leaders from Europe, Canada and Japan to pledge his support for the agreement, Trump tweeted on Saturday: “I will make my final decision on the Paris accord next week!” His position left his counterparts frustrated, with some warning if the US pulled out of the Paris agreement other countries may want to reduce their commitments too. But when asked about Australia’s commitment in the wake of Trump’s tweet, Frydenberg told Guardian Australia the Turnbull government takes its emissions targets seriously “and we’re going on and trying to meet them”. “Issues about domestic climate change policy in the United States is a matter for the Trump administration,” Frydenberg said. He also pointed to a quote from Malcolm Turnbull from November last year, when Turnbull was asked if Australia would remain in the Paris agreement if then president-elect Trump followed through on his threat to cancel the emissions reductions commitments made by Barack Obama in December 2015. Turnbull had said: “When Australia makes a commitment to a global agreement, we follow through and that is exactly what we are doing.” Turnbull also described the Paris agreement as “a watershed and a turning point” that would deliver international action on climate change. “My government is committed to [the Paris agreement]. We have ratified it,” he had said. Read More here
24 May 2017, DeSmogUK, Op-Ed: Glacial Progress at Bonn Climate Talks Shows Why we Need to Exclude Big Polluters From Negotiations. When it comes to the fossil fuel industry participating in UN climate negotiations, it’s clear there is a conflict of interest – and demands for this to end are nothing new. But after fierce resistance to this idea during talks in Bonn last week from the EU, US and Australia, more needs to be done, argues Pascoe Sabido of Corporate Europe Observatory. With just six months to go before November’s COP23 climate negotiations, calls for big polluters to be excluded from the talks are growing. Last May at the same ‘intersessional’ climate talks in Bonn, a group of countries representing more than 70 percent of the world’s population insisted on adding a conflict of interest provision in the negotiating text. It almost made it, were it not for an underhand move by the European Union and the USA which saw it removed. Pulling the strings behind such moves: the world’s largest fossil fuel companies. Taken to its logical conclusion, addressing conflicts of interest would mean kicking out the same corporations whose profits are built on causing climate change. Research shows that at least 80 per cent of known fossil fuel reserves need to be kept in the ground to keep global warming below 2 degrees, let alone 1.5 degrees. But a look at BP and Shell’s future energy projections allege that we can continue to burn fossil fuels indefinitely. Ending fossil fuels would put them out of business. This is a fundamental conflict of interest, yet getting it even discussed – let alone addressed – has been an uphill struggle. However, persistence of those countries at the frontline of climate change – particularly Ecuador, which is seeing increasing water shortages and crop failures – as well as increasing public outrage and civil society’s call on the UN to ‘Kick Big Polluters Out’ of climate policy, has ensured the issue has remained on the agenda. This year’s two-week intersessional talks in Bonn saw an official workshop on the topic organised by the secretariat of the United Nations Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Read More here
23 May 2017, The Conversation, The world would be better off if Trump withdraws from the Paris climate deal. The conventional wisdom that the United States should remain under the Paris Agreement is wrong. A US withdrawal would be the best outcome for international climate action. With Trump set to decide on the matter after this week’s G7 meeting, his aides are split on the issue. Chief strategist Steve Bannon heads the faction pushing for an exit. Secretary of State and former ExxonMobil chief executive Rex Tillerson has argued for the US to retain a “seat at the table”. It is within the president’s power to withdraw from the Paris Agreement and perhaps even the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which has overseen global climate diplomacy for some 25 years. In a commentary published in Nature Climate Change today, I argue that a US withdrawal would minimise risks and maximise opportunities for the climate community. Simply put: the US and the Trump administration can do more damage inside the agreement than outside it. There are four key, interconnected risks related to US participation in the Paris Agreement: that the US will miss its emissions target; that it will cut climate finance; that it will cause a “domino” effect among other nations; and that it will impede the UN negotiations. Read More here