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21 July 2015, The Guardian, Arctic sea ice volume showed strong recovery in 2013, Cooler temperatures revived sea ice levels suggesting a rapid recovery was possible if global warming was curbed, scientists say: Ice in the Arctic staged a surprise revival in 2013, bucking the long-term trend of decline, according to the first analysis of the entire ice cap’s volume. The revival was the result of cooler temperatures that year and suggests that, if global warming was curbed, the Arctic might recover more rapidly than previously thought. The shrinking Arctic ice cap is one of the best known impacts of climate change. The indication that it could be reversible is rare good news for a region where climate change has driven up temperatures far faster than the global average.

The extent of Arctic ice has shrunk by 40% since the late 1970s, when satellite measurements began. But getting comprehensive data on the thickness of the ice, rather than just its area, was difficult until the European Space Agency launched the Cryosat satellite in 2010. The satellite’s 88 million measurements, analysed in Nature Geoscience, show that from 2010-12 the Arctic ice volume fell by 14%, in step with the warming trend of the last few decades. But in 2013, the ice volume jumped up by 41%. “It’s fair to say that none of us were really expecting that,” said Rachel Tilling, at University College London and who led the study. But she dismissed the idea of a wider recovery of the ice cap, saying that climate change is still driving average temperatures up, despite significant variation from one year to the next. “It was a cold year – that happens.”  In fact, while colder than recent years, the temperature in 2013 would have been regarded as normal as recently as the late 1990s. “This allowed thick sea ice to persist northwest of Greenland because there were fewer days when it could melt,” said Tilling. The research is significant as it shows the Arctic ice cap may be more resilient than expected. Tilling said: “You see Arctic sea ice as dwindling and in decline, but then there is a cold year and you get some of the ice back. It shows there is hope for Arctic sea ice, if you can turn the clock back to colder temperatures, which would need huge reductions in carbon emissions.” Read More here
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21 July 2015, The Conversation, The march of the king crabs: a warning from Antarctica: Changing wildlife: this article is part of a series looking at how key species such as bees, insects and fish respond to environmental change, and what this means for the rest of the planet. Hundreds of metres below the surface of the freezing ocean surrounding Antarctica, the seafloor is teeming with life. The animals living there have no idea that an army is on the brink of invading their tranquil environment. The army is composed of king crabs. Until 2003, there were no crabs in this fragile Antarctic ecosystem. Now, driven by warming waters, their arrival heralds a major upset. The unique communities living on the continental shelf off Antarctica are found in no other place on Earth. Delicate brittle stars, beautiful sea stars, vibrant sea lilies, and giant sea spiders are among the spectacular inhabitants found there. The animals live side by side, with almost no predators to upset the balance. For millions of years, the cold water temperatures in the Antarctic have stopped most predators from surviving in this harsh environment. But this situation is rapidly changing. Read More here

 

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21 July 2015, The Conversation, One year on from the carbon price experiment, the rebound in emissions is clear: Just over a year ago, Australia concluded a unique public policy experiment. For the preceding two years and two weeks, it had put a price on a range of greenhouse gas emitting activities, most significantly power generation. Now, 12 months since the price was removed, is a good time to assess the results of the experiment. The immediate effect of the carbon price was to increase the costs faced by most electricity generators, by an amount that varied between individual power stations depending on that station’s emissions intensity (the emissions per unit of electricity). These costs were then passed on in higher prices to consumers.

Simple economics suggests that two effects should have followed. First, less emissions-intensive generators should have been able to increase their market share, resulting in an overall reduction in the average emissions intensity of electricity. Second, higher prices should have led consumers to reduce their consumption, cutting the total demand for electricity. When the price was removed, both of these effects should have been reversed. Let’s look at what happened in the National Electricity Market (NEM), which is the wholesale electricity market in every state and territory except Western Australia and the Northern Territory.

My analysis, using detailed NEM operational data from the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) finds that emissions intensity, which was increasing until shortly before June 2012, fell continuously (see graph below) for most of the two years to June 2014. Since then, it has increased consistently. All these changes were caused by changes in the market shares the different types of generation, just as expected. Read More here

 

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20 July 2015, Science Daily, Changing climate lengthens forest fire season: Over a 35-year period, the length of forest fire seasons worldwide increased by 18.7 percent due to more rain-free days and hotter temperatures, according to research. The study examined weather data from 1979 through 2013 to determine how a changing climate impacts forest ecosystems. Over a 35-year period, the length of forest fire seasons worldwide increased by 18.7 percent due to more rain-free days and hotter temperatures, according to South Dakota State University professor Mark Cochrane, a senior scientist at the Geospatial Sciences Center of Excellence. The wildfire expert is part of a team of researchers led by W. Matt Jolly of the U.S. Forest Service Fire Science Laboratory that examined weather data from 1979 through 2013 to determine how a changing climate impacts forest ecosystems. “For things to burn, they have to have the proper conditions,” he explained. Four independent environmental factors increase the likelihood of wildfires — hotter temperatures, decreased relative humidity, more rain-free days and higher wind speeds. The researchers combined fire danger indexes from the United States, Canada and Australia with three global climate databases to create what Cochrane calls “an ensemble model.” They looked at the length of time and areas where conditions were conducive to fires. Their findings are published in Nature Communications. “Ecosystems are designed to withstand the normal climate situation, but we suspect that things aren’t normal anymore,” Cochrane said. On all the forested continents, except Australia, the fire seasons are getting longer, Cochrane explained. South America had the largest increase — 33 days in 35 years. In addition, the area affected by the longer fire season has doubled. Read More here

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