What you will find on this page: TV meteorologists warming to climate science (video); World Weather Attribution; Climate Central; Climate Science (interactive graph & infographic); Climate Matters; WXshift (Weather Shift); weather@home (opportunity); key organisations; articles & reports; weathergirl goes rogue (video) Also refer to – “The Science” & “Impacts observed & projected” for more details
Mainstreaming our changing climate
“The media, politicians and some scientists outside the area of single event attribution research still often claim that “we can’t attribute any individual event to climate change.” This may have been true in the 1990’s, but it is no longer the case…..People do not necessarily make the connections that have been shown by scientific analysis to exist between extreme weather and climate change.
If people had help connecting the dots – that is, if scientific linkages were clearly articulated and reported more often and more accurately in the media – perhaps the effect of extreme weather on peoples’ views would be greater, leading to better planning to adapt to changes, improved behavioural change, and more action on climate change.” Access full WMO article here
Either this⇑ or this 😳
World Weather Attribution is an international effort designed to sharpen and accelerate the scientific community’s ability to analyze and communicate the possible influence of climate change on extreme-weather events such as storms, floods, heat waves and droughts. Recognizing society’s interest in reducing the human, economic, and environmental costs of weather-related disasters, WWA delivers timely and reliable information on how patterns of extreme weather may be affected by climate change.
The program — a partnership of Climate Central, the University of Oxford Environmental Change Institute (Oxford ECI), the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), the University of Melbourne, and the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre (the Climate Centre) — was initiated in late 2014 after discussions within the scientific community concluded that the emerging science of extreme-event attribution could be operationalized. Climate Central coordinates the program and provides its secretariat.
6 July 2017, Carbon Brief, Mapped: How climate change affects extreme weather around the world. In the early 2000s, a new field of climate science research emerged that began to explore the human fingerprint on extreme weather, such as floods, heatwaves, droughts and storms. Known as “extreme event attribution”, the field has gained momentum, not only in the science world, but also in the media and public imagination because of the power it has to link the seemingly abstract concept of climate change with our own tangible experiences of the weather. Scientists have published more than 140 studies looking at weather events around the world, from Typhoon Haiyan to the California drought. The result is mounting evidence that human activity is raising the risk of some types of extreme weather, especially those linked to heat. Carbon Brief’s analysis suggests 63% of all extreme weather events studied to date were made more likely or more severe by human-caused climate change. Heatwaves account for nearly half of such events (46%), droughts make up 21% and heavy rainfall or floods account for 14%. To track how the evidence on this fast-moving topic is stacking up, Carbon Brief has mapped – to the best of our knowledge – every extreme event attribution study published in a peer-reviewed journal. Our aim is to update the map periodically, as new studies are published, so that it serves as a real-time tracker for the evolving field of “extreme event attribution”. Using the map The map above shows 144 extreme weather events across the globe for which scientists have carried out attribution studies. The different symbols show the type of extreme weather; for example, a heatwave, flood or drought. The colours tell you whether or not the attribution study found climate change had played a role in that event (see the key on the right-hand side). Read More here
CLIMATE CENTRAL communicate the science and effects of climate change to the public and decision-makers. It is an independent organization of leading scientists and journalists researching and reporting the facts about our changing climate and its impact on the public. Climate Central surveys and conducts scientific research on climate change and informs the public of key findings. Climate Central is not an advocacy organization. We do not lobby, and we do not support any specific legislation, policy or bill.
CLIMATE SCIENCE: Climate Central is a leading authority on climate science. Their science team cuts through the hype with clear-eyed analysis of climate change, delivering just the facts and findings. They dig deep into the the data to produce reports on climate trends and impacts, from state level temperature trends, to wildfires, heat waves, drought, precipitation and more. Their reports make climate change interesting and meaningful to people where they live, and provide policy-makers with objective, relevant facts on the issue.
EXAMPLE – CLIMATE SCIENCE: The WWA team and colleagues from the University of New South Wales conducted a rapid attribution analysis to see how climate change factored into the exceptionally warm summer (December to February) of 2016-2017. The team also looked at the hottest three-day average February temperatures in Canberra and Sydney. Access full article here
When will weather reporting with a climate change context become the norm for Australia??
CLIMATE MATTERS: Research shows that meteorologists are trusted messengers on climate change. The majority understand that climate change is real and that the science of climate change needs to be communicated to the public. Unlike climate scientists, TV meteorologists have unparalleled access to their communities. Through Climate Matters, Climate Central provides regularly produced content on the relationship between weather and climate.
Our team of data analysts, meteorologists, climate experts, graphic artists and journalists create graphics, text, animations, videos and research to aid TV weather casters in presenting science-rooted climate information in clear, concise and relevant ways. Each week, we create high-quality information and graphics for our partner meteorologists including:
- Localized data and analyses that show the ways that the climate is changing in their markets
- TV-ready graphics and multimedia content for use across all platforms – including maps, interactive tools, severe weather trackers, temperature trend charts– that convey climate change powerfully and accessibly to general audiences
- Extreme weather analyses produced in the news cycle so that weather casters have reliable climate data as storms are happening—and when millions of people are paying attention
Since 2012, Climate Central’s program has grown to include more than 300 local TV meteorologists who routinely reach millions of viewers. The success of Climate Matters led to a partnership with Weather Company subsidiary WSI, which distributes our analyses to the majority of the nation’s TV weather forecasters.
WXShift (WEATHER SHIFT): A US site that provides weather forecasts for US cities with a local and relevant climate context.. WXshift (pronounced “weather shift”) is a collection of independent journalists, climate scientists, and meteorologists working to bring the latest in weather and climate information to the public. This site is a project of Climate Central,
A starting point…..
The Conversation: Australians and New Zealanders can now use their computers to help scientists discover if climate change has contributed to record heatwaves, droughts and flooding across both countries. The Weather@home project, launched in Australia and New Zealand on 26 March 2014, is the latest stage of what has been dubbed “the world’s largest climate modelling experiment”, started in the UK a decade ago. Anyone with a computer and access to the internet can take part by volunteering their computer’s spare processing power to run climate and weather modelling simulations, even while continuing to use their computer normally. There are 20,000 people worldwide currently helping with similar climate prediction experiments for Europe, USA and southern Africa. Over the past decade, people in 138 countries with nearly 100,000 different computers have been involved. Access full article here. Access weather@homeANZ 2013 site to find out how you can be involved.
Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science: The Centre is an international research consortium of five Australian universities and a suite of outstanding national and international Partner Organizations. It will build on and improve existing understanding of the modeling of regional climates to enable enhanced adaptation to and management of climate change, particularly in the Australian region. The scale of research enabled by the Centre will provide for the enhancement of climate modeling and future climate projections particularly at regional scales, minimizing Australia’s economic, social and environmental vulnerability to climate change. Access list of Partners here
Bureau of Meteorology: The Bureau of Meteorology operates under the authority of the Meteorology Act 1955 and the Water Act 2007 which provide the legal basis for its activities, while its operation is continually assessed in accordance with the national need for climatic records, water information, scientific understanding of Australian weather and climate and effective service provision to the Australian community. Access BOM page on variability and climate trends here
CAWCR has a close working relationship with the Department of the Environment. It also collaborates closely with national and international agencies. Important collaborations include: the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science (ARCCSS), incorporating the universities of New South Wales, Melbourne and Tasmania, and Monash and the Australian National University; and the National Collaborative Research Infrastructure Strategy (NCRIS) facilities in the form of the National Computational Infrastructure; the Integrated Marine Observing System; and the Terrestrial Ecosystem Research Network.
Climate Change in Australia: Climate Change in Australia (or CCIA) is a comprehensive website and suite of reports providing information about climate change projections for Australia.
Climate Council: Exists to provide independent, authoritative climate change information to the Australian public. Why? Because our response to climate change should be based on the best science available. Access report page here
The NCCARF Adaptation Library holds and provides links to research reports and information to help support decision makers throughout Australia as they prepare for and manage the risks of climate change and sea-level rise. CoastAdapt is an online coastal climate risk management framework developed by NCCARF to support adaptation to coastal climate change and sea-level rise.
Weather@homeANZ where anyone with a computer and access to the internet can take part by volunteering their computer’s spare processing power to run climate and weather modelling simulations, even while continuing to use their computer normally.Help to answer the question how the odds of getting an extremely hot summer, or extremely severe drought, have changed due to man-made climate change: have past greenhouse gas emissions and other forms of pollution “loaded the weather dice” towards (or perhaps even away from) events of this nature?
August 4, 2017
Winter hasn’t felt too wintry yet in much of Australia. Most of us have have had more sunshine, higher temperatures, and less rainfall than is normal for the time of year. In fact, Australia just had its…
August 2, 2017
July 29, 2017
Better than sex? Why we are so obsessed with the weather, Lawrie Zion, La Trobe University
July 6, 2017
This June was the seventh-warmest and second-driest on record for Australia. Parts of the southwest and southeast saw record dry conditions as frontal systems passed further south than normal and high…
June 19, 2017
Are heatwaves ‘worsening’ and have ‘hot days’ doubled in Australia in the last 50 years? Andrew King, University of Melbourne
Climate Council CEO Amanda McKenzie told Q&A that heatwaves were ‘worsening’ in Australia and ‘hot days’ had doubled in the last 50 years. Let’s take a look at the evidence.
June 8, 2017
What is a pre-industrial climate and why does it matter? Andrew King, University of Melbourne; Ben Henley, University of Melbourne, and Ed Hawkins, University of Reading
The Paris climate agreement aims to keep restrict global warming to within 2℃ above ‘pre-industrial levels’. But what does that mean, exactly?
June 7, 2017
Winter warmth is in the forecast (but don’t celebrate yet) Andrew King, University of Melbourne
Australia is looking at another mild winter – but while it sounds pleasant, it can increase bushfire risk and worsen drought. Winter heatwaves are actually (enjoyable) extreme weather events.
May 16, 2017
Why 2℃ of global warming is much worse for Australia than 1.5℃ Andrew King, University of Melbourne; Ben Henley, University of Melbourne, and David Karoly, University of Melbourne
Global warming of 2℃, the higher of the two Paris targets, would see current record-breaking temperatures become the norm in the future, potentially bringing heatwaves to both land and sea.
May 9, 2017
Global warming could accelerate towards 1.5℃ if the Pacific gets cranky Ben Henley, University of Melbourne and Andrew King, University of Melbourne
If the Pacific Ocean enters an ‘El Tio’ phase, it could speed the world towards 1.5 degrees of global warming, one of the crucial benchmarks of the Paris Climate Agreement.
March 2, 2017
Climate change’s signature was writ large on Australia’s crazy summer of 2017 Andrew King, University of Melbourne; David Karoly, University of Melbourne; Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute ; Matthew Hale, UNSW, and Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick, UNSW
New South Wales has just had its hottest summer on record – an event that was made 50 times more likely by humans’ impact on the climate.
February 16, 2017
Climate change doubled the likelihood of the New South Wales heatwave Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick, UNSW; Andrew King, University of Melbourne, and Matthew Hale, UNSW
Heat records have tumbled across New South Wales as the state suffered through the weekend’s heatwave. A new analysis shows that climate change made this kind of event much less of a rarity.
February 6, 2017
Meet El Niño’s cranky uncle that could send global warming into hyperdrive Ben Henley, University of Melbourne; Andrew King, University of Melbourne; Chris Folland, Met Office Hadley Centre; David Karoly, University of Melbourne; Jaci Brown, CSIRO, and Mandy Freund, University of Melbourne
We’re due to cop a hiding from the Pacific Ocean, but we don’t know when.
January 11, 2017
December 22, 2016
Yes, the Arctic’s freakishly warm winter is due to humans’ climate influence Andrew King, University of Melbourne
The end of 2016 has brought balmy Arctic temperatures and record low ice extent for the time of year. It’s a freak event even by modern standards, and climate models point the finger firmly at humans.
December 16, 2016
Climate change played a role in Australia’s hottest October and Tasmania’s big dry in 2015 Pandora Hope, Australian Bureau of Meteorology; Andrew King, University of Melbourne; Guomin Wang, Australian Bureau of Meteorology; Julie Arblaster, Monash University, and Michael Grose, CSIRO
October 2015 was the hottest on record for that month, and Tasmania had its driest ever spring.
December 16, 2016
Infographic: climate change and 2015’s year of wild weather Andrew King, University of Melbourne
Across the globe, extreme heat events are linked with climate change, although El Niño provided a boost in 2015 leading to more records being broken.
October 21, 2016
September brought the world’s record-breaking hot streak to an end – but don’t chill out Andrew King, University of Melbourne and Ben Henley, University of Melbourne
Since April 2015, each month has been the hottest on record and it’s the longest hot streak on record.
September 29, 2016
What caused South Australia’s state-wide blackout? Andrew King, University of Melbourne; Dylan McConnell, University of Melbourne; Hugh Saddler, Australian National University; Nicky Ison, University of Technology Sydney, and Roger Dargaville, University of Melbourne
South Australia is recovering from a state-wide blackout, and fingers are pointing at the state’s renewable energy industry and climate change.
September 15, 2016
August 24, 2016
Keeping global warming to 1.5C, not 2C, will make a crucial difference to Australia, report says James Whitmore, The Conversation and Michael Hopkin, The Conversation
A new report published by the Climate Institute says Australia could avoid lengthy heatwaves and help save the Great Barrier Reef by meeting the Paris Agreement’s 1.5C global warming goal.
August 15, 2016
We have almost certainly blown the 1.5-degree global warming target Andrew King, University of Melbourne and Ben Henley, University of Melbourne
Limiting global warming to 1.5℃ already looks out of reach, so where do we go from here?
August 4, 2016
State of the Climate 2015: global warming and El Niño sent records tumbling Andrew King, University of Melbourne and Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick, UNSW
2015 was the world’s hottest year on record. The US State of the Climate report has rounded up the litany of temperature and other records that were broken all over the globe.
June 1, 2016
Australia simmers through hottest autumn on record Andrew King, University of Melbourne
Autumn 2016 was Australia’s hottest, beating the previous record set in 2005.
May 28, 2016
The city of Phalodi has set a temperature record for India, hitting 51℃. Until now, India’s smog problem has curbed extreme temperatures. But that could be about to change.
May 18, 2016
2016 is likely to be the world’s hottest year: here’s why Andrew King, University of Melbourne and Ed Hawkins, University of Reading
Another month, another broken temperature record. Scientists are already confident 2016 will be the hottest year ever, a record only set in 2015.
April 29, 2016
Great Barrier Reef bleaching would be almost impossible without climate change Andrew King, University of Melbourne; David Karoly, University of Melbourne; Mitchell Black, University of Melbourne; Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, The University of Queensland, and Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick, UNSW
This summer’s record-breaking coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef was made 175 times more likely thanks to climate change.
March 8, 2016
We traced the human fingerprint on record-breaking temperatures back to the 1930s Andrew King, University of Melbourne and Mitchell Black, University of Melbourne
Record-breaking years have been almost impossible without human-caused climate change.
27 November 2015 ECOS
November 6, 2015
A year of records: the human role in 2014’s wild weather Mitchell Black, University of Melbourne; Andrew King, University of Melbourne, and David Karoly, University of Melbourne
2014 saw heatwaves of all kinds and other wild weather. Research can now explain that climate change made these events much more likely.
October 29, 2015
It’s been Australia’s hottest ever October, and that’s no coincidence David Karoly, University of Melbourne and Mitchell Black, University of Melbourne
This has been Australia’s hottest October on record. And the record-breaking temperatures are at least six times more likely thanks to human-induced global warming.
September 24, 2015
Ground zero for climate change: the tropics were first to feel the definite effects in the 1960s Andrew King, University of Melbourne and Ed Hawkins, University of Reading
Global warming is, by definition, experienced worldwide. But a new study shows that the tropics were the first places on earth where the human effect on climate outstripped normal climate variations.
May 1, 2015
England’s set to swelter through a rash of record hot years Andrew King, University of Melbourne
An analysis of the world’s longest-running temperature record suggests that England is many times more likely to experience more record-breaking hot years like 2014 than it was a century ago.
April 28, 2015
Explainer: was the Sydney storm ‘once-in-a-century’? Kate R Saunders, University of Melbourne; David Karoly, University of Melbourne, and Peter Taylor, University of Melbourne
The recent wild weather that lashed New South Wales has been described as ‘once-in-a-century’. But how often does it really happen?
December 17, 2014
Scorching 2014 sees records tumble in 19 European countries Andrew King, University of Melbourne; David Karoly, University of Melbourne, and Sophie Lewis, Australian National University
It’s clear: 2014 has been a scorcher. As well as probably being the hottest year on record globally, regional and local climate records have tumbled too. Australia recently had its hottest spring on record…
December 5, 2014
Hot 2014 closes in on top spot in world temperature rankings Andrew King, University of Melbourne and David Karoly, University of Melbourne
As representatives from around the world sit down in Lima to discuss how to tackle the ever-growing problem of climate change, it is becoming increasingly likely that 2014 will be the hottest year on record…
December 4, 2014
Sound familiar? Spring 2014 was Australia’s hottest on record, again Andrew King, University of Melbourne
This time last year, it was announced that Australia had experienced its hottest spring on record. Well, guess what? It’s happened again. The spring of 2014 was hotter still and is the new record-holder…
March 26, 2014
How your computer could reveal what’s driving record rain and heat in Australia and NZ Liz Minchin, The Conversation and Katherine Smyrk, The Conversation
Australians and New Zealanders can now use their computers to help scientists discover if climate change has contributed…
January 6, 2014
Australia’s hottest year was no freak event: humans caused it Sophie Lewis, University of Melbourne and David Karoly, University of Melbourne
The Bureau of Meteorology has confirmed that 2013 was the hottest year in Australia since records began in 1910. Unusual heat was a persistent feature throughout the year. For the continent as a whole…
October 1, 2013
Sweaty September smashes records, with more heat to come James Whitmore, The Conversation
Australia has experienced its hottest September on record, as well as rewriting the records for the hottest 12-month period…
September 6, 2013
As a climate scientist, it seems for every extreme event – be it the recent hottest 12 months on record for Australia or the floods and heavy rains of 2011 and 2012 – one question is inevitably asked…
September 2, 2013
Hottest 12-month period confirmed – so what role did humans play? David Karoly, University of Melbourne and Sophie Lewis, University of Melbourne
It’s official, the past 12 months have been the hottest in Australia for more than a hundred years. Temperatures averaged across Australia between September 2012 and August 2013 were hotter than any year…
June 27, 2013
Today we released a study that shows quantitatively that anthropogenic climate change substantially increased the likelihood of the record-breaking Australian summer of 2013. Indeed, human influences on…
May 27, 2013
Uncertainty no excuse for procrastinating on climate change Roger Bodman, Victoria University and David Karoly, University of Melbourne
Today we released research which reduces the range of uncertainty in future global warming. It does not alter the fact we will never be certain about how, exactly, the climate will change. We always have…