What you will find on this page: Special Climate Statement 62 – record heat in September; Special Climate Statement 61 – exceptional heat; Annual Climate Statement 2016 (video); State of the Climate Report 2016 (video); record September rains; climate zones on the move; Australia’s changing rainfall zones; BOM UPDATES: ENSO Wrap-up (El Nino/La Nina); climate outlook update (video); climate outlook – monthly & seasonal; latest drought statement; heatwave outlook; Water in Australia 2014-2015 Report; monthly water update; Australian landscape water balance; Special Climate Statements;
Where the rubber hits the road – what IS the weather doing?
The difference between weather and climate is a measure of time. Weather is what conditions of the atmosphere are over a short period of time, and climate is how the atmosphere “behaves” over relatively long periods of time. (NASA)
The Climatedogs animation series is an award winning series of short animated videos produced by DEPI. The animations explain what drives the climate in Victoria, and how climate drivers are changing over time. Access here for more information
5 October 2017 – On 22 September 2017, Australia as a whole had its warmest September day since national area-averaged temperature records began in 1911. In the following week, New South Wales and Queensland had their warmest September days on record, and South Australia, Victoria and the Northern Territory each had days in their top-10 warmest for September. More than 20% of Australia by area recorded its hottest September day on record during 22–29 September. Access full report here
22 February 2017 – Summer 2016–17 saw prolonged and, at times, extreme heat over New South Wales, southern Queensland, South Australia and parts of northern Victoria. January 2017 saw the highest monthly mean temperatures on record for Sydney and Brisbane, and the highest daytime temperatures on record for Canberra. In January and February, there were three distinct heatwaves in southeast Australia, with the highest temperatures recorded over 9–12 February 2017. The periods between the waves of extreme heat also saw above average temperatures over large areas of east and southeast Australia. It was the consistency of high temperatures more than the extreme temperatures themselves that made early 2017 an exceptional event. Access full report here
The Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO play an important role in monitoring, analysing and communicating observed changes in Australia’s climate. This fourth, biennial State of the Climate report draws on the latest monitoring, science and projection information to describe variability and changes in Australia’s climate, and how it is likely to change in the future. Observations and climate modelling paint a consistent picture of ongoing, long-term climate change interacting with underlying natural variability. Read more and to access full report here & access commentary here
12 October 2016: September was an exceptionally wet month over most of the eastern two-thirds of mainland Australia, as a succession of rain-bearing systems affected various parts of the continent. Monthly rainfall was at least double the long-term average over almost all of inland New South Wales and Queensland, most of the Northern Territory and outback South Australia, and parts of northern and western Victoria and eastern South Australia. Averaged over Australia as a whole, it was the second-wettest September on record, just behind September 2010. It was the wettest September on record for New South Wales and the Northern Territory, as well as for the Murray−Darling Basin, while it ranks second-wettest for Victoria, third-wettest for Queensland and fourth-wettest for South Australia. Access full report here
Rule of Thumb; For every one degree increase in global average temperature the climate zones can move 150kms.
As the planet warms, Earth’s climate zones are shifting at an accelerating pace….The acceleration of change means that the species inhabiting each zone have less time to adapt to the climatic changes…. “The warmer the climate gets, the faster the climate zones are shifting. This could make it harder for plants and animals to adjust.” Read More here & here
According to research in Nature Climate Change, with a warming of 2°C, about 5% of land would shift into a new climate zone. As the temperatures rise another 2°C, 10% of the land area shifts to a new zone.
The results of a study published in the journal Biological Conservation recently concluded that in Australia, the climate is warming to an extent that many specialised tree species that require cooler climates are struggling. Typically, these trees would start to shift to cooler environments, but as Craig Costion explained “they already live on mountain tops…they have no other place to go.”
The Bureau of Meteorology Newsroom has been designed to provide material that can be easily sourced and referenced by journalists in media coverage of weather, warnings and other information of public interest. Access Newsroom here
Latest BOM: Issued on 16 January 2018 Next issue: 30 January 2018
Weak La Niña continues over the Pacific: A weak La Niña pattern continues in the tropical Pacific. This event is likely to be at or near its peak, with most models suggesting this La Niña will end during the southern autumn. Sea surface temperatures currently show a clear La Niña pattern, with coolest waters concentrated in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Likewise, some atmospheric indicators such as trade winds and cloudiness also show a clear La Niña signal. However, a continuing build-up of warmer water beneath the surface of the western Pacific is a likely precursor to the end of this event. In order for 2017–18 to be classed as a La Niña year, thresholds need to be exceeded for at least three months. Most climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest this event is likely to last through the southern summer, and decay in the early southern autumn of 2018, so these thresholds are likely to be met. La Niña typically brings above average rainfall to eastern Australia during summer, particularly in northern New South Wales and Queensland. However, a weak La Niña will have less influence on Australian rainfall than a strong event. La Niña events can also increase the likelihood of prolonged warm spells for southeast Australia. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. IOD events are unable to form between December and April. To find out more go here
Climate outlook overview (access full outlook here)
- The February to April rainfall outlook, issued 11 January 2018, shows most of eastern Queensland and WA are likely to have a wetter than average three months.
- February is likely to be wetter than average for much of Australia, with strongest chances in the west.
- February to April daytime and night-time temperatures are likely to be cooler than average for parts of western, northern and southeastern Australia, but warmer than average for Tasmania.
- La Niña conditions are present in the tropical Pacific Ocean. This event is forecast to be short lived and weaker than the previous La Niña in 2010-12. See the Climate Influences section for more information.
The latest and full Drought Statement is now available on the Bureau’s website. Issued 9 January 2018
- December rainfall above to very much above average for eastern and northern Victoria, southern New South Wales, eastern Tasmania, much of southern South Australia, along the west coast of Western Australia and from the western Kimberley to central Western Australia
- Rainfall during December below average for much of the Northern Territory and Queensland
- Serious to severe rainfall deficiencies remain at the 7-month timescale in the Pilbara in Western Australia, and small areas of eastern Australia, particularly in central eastern New South Wales and the east coast of Tasmania
- Serious to severe rainfall deficiencies are evident at the 10-month timescale near the west coast of Western Australia, and areas of central and western Queensland
- Lower-layer soil moisture was below average for December in most of Queensland, the eastern Top End, parts of northeastern New South Wales, and much of Tasmania
The Heatwave Forecast is a Bureau of Meteorology product that shows the location of heatwaves, severe heatwaves and extreme heatwaves for the last two three-day periods and the next five three-day periods. It uses some analysis Numerical Weather Prediction model data, not the Official Forecast data. Please refer to official Bureau of Meteorology products for information on how hot each day and night will be during the three day period. Click on image to access BOM site.
April 2016: Just when we thought summer was coming to an end, a prolonged heatwave affected much of Australia during late February and March 2016. A Special Climate Statement includes information and maps about this extended heatwave.
It developed in northern Australia during the second half of February, where temperatures were well above normal from the second week of February onwards. For example, at Julia Creek in Queensland, a run of 21 consecutive days of 40 °C or above began on 12 February, peaking in the last few days of the month. Over the final fortnight of February, maximum temperatures were at least 2 °C above average over most of tropical Australia, and 4–6 °C above average over parts of northwestern Queensland. Read More in BOM’s Special Climate Statement
Water in Australia 2014–15 describes the characteristics of the country’s water resources, availability and use from 1 July 2014 to 30 June 2015 in the context of climatic conditions, and past water availability and use. In 2014–15, Australia generally experienced below-average rainfall (10 per cent less than the national average since 1910–11) with large seasonal and regional variation, including below-average rainfall throughout the east, and above-average rainfall in the central north, northwest and southeast. Mainly in the eastern parts of Australia, these patterns were influenced by near-El Niño conditions in spring 2014, evolving into El Niño by May 2015. Read More here
The BOM Monthly Water Update provides an overview of rainfall patterns and streamflow status across Australia. Rainfall is a key driver of streamflow and is shown alongside flows from over 222 gauging stations, across 9 of the 13 topographic drainage divisions in Australia. The Monthly Water Update interprets the hydrological status of surface water flows each month using provisional information from data providers.
Details accessed through date and location – go here The landscape water balance is the sum of the hydrological processes that keep water moving through a landscape—recharging groundwater, filling streams and flushing water through wetlands. This water balance also determines how much moisture is in the soil—a vital input for seasonal planting and crop production decisions.