What you will find on this page: Special Climate Statement 64 – record warmth in Tasman Sea; Special Climate Statement 62 – record heat in September; Special Climate Statement 61 – exceptional heat; Annual Climate Statement 2016 (video); State of the Climate Report 2016 (video); record September rains; climate zones on the move; Australia’s changing rainfall zones; BOM UPDATES: ENSO Wrap-up (El Nino/La Nina); climate outlook update (video); climate outlook – monthly & seasonal; latest drought statement; heatwave outlook; Water in Australia 2014-2015 Report; monthly water update; Australian landscape water balance; Special Climate Statements;
Where the rubber hits the road – what IS the weather doing?
The difference between weather and climate is a measure of time. Weather is what conditions of the atmosphere are over a short period of time, and climate is how the atmosphere “behaves” over relatively long periods of time. (NASA)
The Climatedogs animation series is an award winning series of short animated videos produced by DEPI. The animations explain what drives the climate in Victoria, and how climate drivers are changing over time. Access here for more information
27 March 2018 – Sea surface temperatures in the southern Tasman Sea rose to exceptionally high levels in late 2017 and early 2018. These temperatures were far above any others previously observed at that time of year in the region, and extended west from New Zealand to Tasmania and mainland southeast Australia. In parallel with this, land temperatures were well above average in areas near the Tasman Sea warm anomalies, with many records set both in New Zealand and in southeast Australia (especially Tasmania).Access full report here
5 October 2017 – On 22 September 2017, Australia as a whole had its warmest September day since national area-averaged temperature records began in 1911. In the following week, New South Wales and Queensland had their warmest September days on record, and South Australia, Victoria and the Northern Territory each had days in their top-10 warmest for September. More than 20% of Australia by area recorded its hottest September day on record during 22–29 September. Access full report here
22 February 2017 – Summer 2016–17 saw prolonged and, at times, extreme heat over New South Wales, southern Queensland, South Australia and parts of northern Victoria. January 2017 saw the highest monthly mean temperatures on record for Sydney and Brisbane, and the highest daytime temperatures on record for Canberra. In January and February, there were three distinct heatwaves in southeast Australia, with the highest temperatures recorded over 9–12 February 2017. The periods between the waves of extreme heat also saw above average temperatures over large areas of east and southeast Australia. It was the consistency of high temperatures more than the extreme temperatures themselves that made early 2017 an exceptional event. Access full report here
The Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO play an important role in monitoring, analysing and communicating observed changes in Australia’s climate. This fourth, biennial State of the Climate report draws on the latest monitoring, science and projection information to describe variability and changes in Australia’s climate, and how it is likely to change in the future. Observations and climate modelling paint a consistent picture of ongoing, long-term climate change interacting with underlying natural variability. Read more and to access full report here & access commentary here
12 October 2016: September was an exceptionally wet month over most of the eastern two-thirds of mainland Australia, as a succession of rain-bearing systems affected various parts of the continent. Monthly rainfall was at least double the long-term average over almost all of inland New South Wales and Queensland, most of the Northern Territory and outback South Australia, and parts of northern and western Victoria and eastern South Australia. Averaged over Australia as a whole, it was the second-wettest September on record, just behind September 2010. It was the wettest September on record for New South Wales and the Northern Territory, as well as for the Murray−Darling Basin, while it ranks second-wettest for Victoria, third-wettest for Queensland and fourth-wettest for South Australia. Access full report here
Rule of Thumb; For every one degree increase in global average temperature the climate zones can move 150kms.
As the planet warms, Earth’s climate zones are shifting at an accelerating pace….The acceleration of change means that the species inhabiting each zone have less time to adapt to the climatic changes…. “The warmer the climate gets, the faster the climate zones are shifting. This could make it harder for plants and animals to adjust.” Read More here & here
According to research in Nature Climate Change, with a warming of 2°C, about 5% of land would shift into a new climate zone. As the temperatures rise another 2°C, 10% of the land area shifts to a new zone.
The results of a study published in the journal Biological Conservation recently concluded that in Australia, the climate is warming to an extent that many specialised tree species that require cooler climates are struggling. Typically, these trees would start to shift to cooler environments, but as Craig Costion explained “they already live on mountain tops…they have no other place to go.”
The Bureau of Meteorology Newsroom has been designed to provide material that can be easily sourced and referenced by journalists in media coverage of weather, warnings and other information of public interest. Access Newsroom here
Latest BOM: Issued on 14 August 2018 Next issue: 28 August 2018
Little change in the tropical Pacific; El Niño remains possible in 2018. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral. While the tropical Pacific Ocean has cooled in the past month, most international climate models forecast warming to resume in the coming weeks, with El Niño development possible in the southern spring. Therefore, the Bureau’s ENSO Outlook remains at El Niño WATCH. El Niño WATCH means there is approximately a 50% chance of El Niño forming in 2018; double the normal chance. While the surface of the central to eastern tropical Pacific has cooled over the past month, the water below the surface of the western Pacific is warming again. Although atmospheric indicators such as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) remain neutral, tropical cyclones to the north of the equator are acting to increase the warmth in the Pacific by suppressing trade winds. Most international climate models surveyed by the Bureau predict warming of the tropical Pacific is likely to recommence in the coming weeks. Most models suggest El Niño thresholds are likely to be reached by the end of the year, with the majority suggesting these thresholds could be met by mid to late spring. El Niño during spring typically means below average rainfall in eastern and northern Australia while daytime temperatures are typically above average over southern Australia. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral. However, the ocean to the northwest of Australia remains cooler than normal, which is contributing to suppressed rainfall over southern and southeast Australia. Three of six international climate models suggest a short-lived positive IOD event may develop. A positive IOD during spring typically reduces rainfall in central and southern Australia, and can exacerbate any El Niño driven rainfall deficiencies. Source: ENSO Wrap-up
Climate outlook overview (access full outlook here)
- The climate outlook, issued 16 August 2018, shows the first months of spring (September and October) are likely to be drier than average for most of northern, eastern and southern Australia. Overall, spring (September to November) is likely to be drier for southwest WA, southeast Australia, and parts of central Queensland when averaged over the whole season.
- Spring days are likely to be warmer than average for Australia.
- Nights are also likely to be warmer than average for most areas, except for parts of northern Australia and the southeast of the mainland.
- A dry and warm spring would mean intensification of the existing drought conditions across parts of eastern Australia.
- The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are currently neutral. However, current observations and model outlooks indicate El Niño and a positive IOD could develop in spring. See the Climate Influences section for more information.
The latest and full Drought Statement is now available on the Bureau’s website. Issued 2 August2018
Rainfall deficiencies continue and increase in severity for the east
Nationally, it was the driest July since 2002 and below average for most of southern Australia. The Goldfields and Southern Interior districts of Western Australia, areas in the south and northeast of South Australia, into New South Wales and northern Victoria all very much below average. Rainfall was the lowest on record for July in parts of northern inland and west slopes of New South Wales, across the border into the eastern Pastoral region of South Australia and patches in the Goldfields of Western Australia. Despite the month overall being very dry, there were areas that received above average rainfall in southwest Western Australia, the northeast coast of the Top End, far north coast of Queensland and most of Tasmania. Rainfall deficiencies have increased in both areal extent and severity for almost all of New South Wales, inland southern Queensland, northern Victoria (less so in southeast either side of the Victoria and New South Wales border), eastern Pastoral and southern Agricultural regions of South Australia, and southern and Gascoyne coast of Western Australia at both the 7- and 16-month timescales.
The Heatwave Forecast is a Bureau of Meteorology product that shows the location of heatwaves, severe heatwaves and extreme heatwaves for the last two three-day periods and the next five three-day periods. It uses some analysis Numerical Weather Prediction model data, not the Official Forecast data. Please refer to official Bureau of Meteorology products for information on how hot each day and night will be during the three day period. Click on image to access BOM site.
April 2016: Just when we thought summer was coming to an end, a prolonged heatwave affected much of Australia during late February and March 2016. A Special Climate Statement includes information and maps about this extended heatwave.
It developed in northern Australia during the second half of February, where temperatures were well above normal from the second week of February onwards. For example, at Julia Creek in Queensland, a run of 21 consecutive days of 40 °C or above began on 12 February, peaking in the last few days of the month. Over the final fortnight of February, maximum temperatures were at least 2 °C above average over most of tropical Australia, and 4–6 °C above average over parts of northwestern Queensland. Read More in BOM’s Special Climate Statement
Water in Australia – 2014-2015 BOM Report
Water in Australia 2014–15 describes the characteristics of the country’s water resources, availability and use from 1 July 2014 to 30 June 2015 in the context of climatic conditions, and past water availability and use. In 2014–15, Australia generally experienced below-average rainfall (10 per cent less than the national average since 1910–11) with large seasonal and regional variation, including below-average rainfall throughout the east, and above-average rainfall in the central north, northwest and southeast. Mainly in the eastern parts of Australia, these patterns were influenced by near-El Niño conditions in spring 2014, evolving into El Niño by May 2015. Read More here
BOM Monthly Water Update
The BOM Monthly Water Update provides an overview of rainfall patterns and streamflow status across Australia. Rainfall is a key driver of streamflow and is shown alongside flows from over 222 gauging stations, across 9 of the 13 topographic drainage divisions in Australia. The Monthly Water Update interprets the hydrological status of surface water flows each month using provisional information from data providers.
BOM Australian Landscape Water Balance
Details accessed through date and location – go here The landscape water balance is the sum of the hydrological processes that keep water moving through a landscape—recharging groundwater, filling streams and flushing water through wetlands. This water balance also determines how much moisture is in the soil—a vital input for seasonal planting and crop production decisions.