What you will find on this page: Special Climate Statement – exceptional heat; Annual Climate Statement 2016 (video); State of the Climate Report 2016 (video); record September rains; climate zones on the move; Australia’s changing rainfall zones; BOM UPDATES: ENSO Wrap-up (El Nino/La Nina); climate outlook update (video); climate outlook – monthly & seasonal; latest drought statement; heatwave outlook; Water in Australia 2014-2015 Report; monthly water update; Australian landscape water balance; Special Climate Statements;
Where the rubber hits the road – what IS the weather doing?
The difference between weather and climate is a measure of time. Weather is what conditions of the atmosphere are over a short period of time, and climate is how the atmosphere “behaves” over relatively long periods of time. (NASA)
The Climatedogs animation series is an award winning series of short animated videos produced by DEPI. The animations explain what drives the climate in Victoria, and how climate drivers are changing over time. Access here for more information
22 February 2017 – Summer 2016–17 saw prolonged and, at times, extreme heat over New South Wales, southern Queensland, South Australia and parts of northern Victoria. January 2017 saw the highest monthly mean temperatures on record for Sydney and Brisbane, and the highest daytime temperatures on record for Canberra. In January and February, there were three distinct heatwaves in southeast Australia, with the highest temperatures recorded over 9–12 February 2017. The periods between the waves of extreme heat also saw above average temperatures over large areas of east and southeast Australia. It was the consistency of high temperatures more than the extreme temperatures themselves that made early 2017 an exceptional event. Access full report here
The Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO play an important role in monitoring, analysing and communicating observed changes in Australia’s climate. This fourth, biennial State of the Climate report draws on the latest monitoring, science and projection information to describe variability and changes in Australia’s climate, and how it is likely to change in the future. Observations and climate modelling paint a consistent picture of ongoing, long-term climate change interacting with underlying natural variability. Read more and to access full report here & access commentary here
12 October 2016: September was an exceptionally wet month over most of the eastern two-thirds of mainland Australia, as a succession of rain-bearing systems affected various parts of the continent. Monthly rainfall was at least double the long-term average over almost all of inland New South Wales and Queensland, most of the Northern Territory and outback South Australia, and parts of northern and western Victoria and eastern South Australia. Averaged over Australia as a whole, it was the second-wettest September on record, just behind September 2010. It was the wettest September on record for New South Wales and the Northern Territory, as well as for the Murray−Darling Basin, while it ranks second-wettest for Victoria, third-wettest for Queensland and fourth-wettest for South Australia. Access full report here
Rule of Thumb; For every one degree increase in global average temperature the climate zones can move 150kms.
As the planet warms, Earth’s climate zones are shifting at an accelerating pace….The acceleration of change means that the species inhabiting each zone have less time to adapt to the climatic changes…. “The warmer the climate gets, the faster the climate zones are shifting. This could make it harder for plants and animals to adjust.” Read More here & here
According to research in Nature Climate Change, with a warming of 2°C, about 5% of land would shift into a new climate zone. As the temperatures rise another 2°C, 10% of the land area shifts to a new zone.
The results of a study published in the journal Biological Conservation recently concluded that in Australia, the climate is warming to an extent that many specialised tree species that require cooler climates are struggling. Typically, these trees would start to shift to cooler environments, but as Craig Costion explained “they already live on mountain tops…they have no other place to go.”
The Bureau of Meteorology Newsroom has been designed to provide material that can be easily sourced and referenced by journalists in media coverage of weather, warnings and other information of public interest. Access Newsroom here
Latest BOM: Issued on 29 August 2017 Next issue: 12 September 2017
ENSO and Indian Ocean Dipole persist at neutral levels The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral. International climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest the tropical Pacific Ocean is likely to persist at ENSO-neutral levels until at least late 2017. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) have cooled over much of the central tropical Pacific during the past several weeks, yet have remained within the neutral range. Other indicators of ENSO, such as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), cloudiness near the Date Line and trade winds are also at neutral levels. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral, though index values have generally been above zero for the past several months. Most climate models suggest a neutral IOD is likely to continue. However, two of the six climate models surveyed suggest a positive IOD may develop during spring. Positive IOD events are typically associated with below average winter–spring rainfall, and increased spring–summer fire potential over central and southern Australia. To find out more go here
Climate outlook overview (access full outlook here)
- The spring outlook, issued 31 August 2017, shows rainfall is likely to be below average in southwest Australia, above average in parts of southeast Queensland, and has a roughly equal chance of being above or below average elsewhere.
- Daytime temperatures are likely to be warmer than average for northern and southeastern Australia.
- Spring nights are likely to be warmer than average over northern and eastern Australia, though frost risk remains in areas with clear skies and dry soils.
- Both of Australia’s major climate drivers at this time of year, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), remain neutral. Secondary climate drivers are likely to be affecting this outlook. These include sea surface temperatures around the Australian coastline, as well as higher pressures to the south of the continent encouraging more easterly flow across Australia.
The latest and full Drought Statement is now available on the Bureau’s website. Issued 4 May 2017
- April rainfall was below average for much of Queensland, the Northern Territory, Tasmania and southwest Western Australia
- Serious to severe rainfall deficiencies are present at the 3-month timescale in the Northern Territory into southwestern Queensland and surrounding areas
- Soil moisture is below average across much of Queensland and western parts of the Northern Territory
The Heatwave Forecast is a Bureau of Meteorology product that shows the location of heatwaves, severe heatwaves and extreme heatwaves for the last two three-day periods and the next five three-day periods. It uses some analysis Numerical Weather Prediction model data, not the Official Forecast data. Please refer to official Bureau of Meteorology products for information on how hot each day and night will be during the three day period. Click on image to access BOM site.
April 2016: Just when we thought summer was coming to an end, a prolonged heatwave affected much of Australia during late February and March 2016. A Special Climate Statement includes information and maps about this extended heatwave.
It developed in northern Australia during the second half of February, where temperatures were well above normal from the second week of February onwards. For example, at Julia Creek in Queensland, a run of 21 consecutive days of 40 °C or above began on 12 February, peaking in the last few days of the month. Over the final fortnight of February, maximum temperatures were at least 2 °C above average over most of tropical Australia, and 4–6 °C above average over parts of northwestern Queensland. Read More in BOM’s Special Climate Statement
Water in Australia 2014–15 describes the characteristics of the country’s water resources, availability and use from 1 July 2014 to 30 June 2015 in the context of climatic conditions, and past water availability and use. In 2014–15, Australia generally experienced below-average rainfall (10 per cent less than the national average since 1910–11) with large seasonal and regional variation, including below-average rainfall throughout the east, and above-average rainfall in the central north, northwest and southeast. Mainly in the eastern parts of Australia, these patterns were influenced by near-El Niño conditions in spring 2014, evolving into El Niño by May 2015. Read More here
The BOM Monthly Water Update provides an overview of rainfall patterns and streamflow status across Australia. Rainfall is a key driver of streamflow and is shown alongside flows from over 222 gauging stations, across 9 of the 13 topographic drainage divisions in Australia. The Monthly Water Update interprets the hydrological status of surface water flows each month using provisional information from data providers.
Details accessed through date and location – go here The landscape water balance is the sum of the hydrological processes that keep water moving through a landscape—recharging groundwater, filling streams and flushing water through wetlands. This water balance also determines how much moisture is in the soil—a vital input for seasonal planting and crop production decisions.