HomeFriends of weather@homeANZ

Purpose of this page: To encourage anyone who has a home computer to sign up for weather@homeANZ to support Australian and New Zealand scientists to run experiments that can help answer the questions: How have the odds of getting an extremely hot summer, or extremely severe drought, changed due to man-made climate change? Have past greenhouse gas emissions and other forms of pollution “loaded the weather dice” towards (or perhaps even away from) extreme events happening in our region?

Can you help scientists understand how climate change is influencing extreme events in Australia and New Zealand? YES, you can! (DRAFT PAGE)

HOW?? By supporting weather@homeANZ

By joining weather@home and “donating” your spare home computer processing time you can provide practical assistance for our scientists to analyse and report on what effect, if any, climate change is having on extreme events in our region (Australia & New Zealand). As the globe is divided into several regions, each designated region is responsible for their own experiments and analysis of the extreme events that happen in their region. So if there is not enough donated processing time available to run the experiments in a timely fashion then the usefulness of the experiments is compromised. i.e. the more people that sign up and highlight weather@homeANZ as their primary preference for processing time the greater usefulness and influence the results can have. If you are time poor but still want to help then this is the way to do it!

SIGN UP HERE

For easy access, here is the LOG IN PAGE once you have registered, also Project Status page

Help increase participation by promoting to friends, family and colleagues – send them a link to this page 

For more information contact Friends of weather@homeANZ: Hazen 

Introducing weather@homeANZ:  What has been happening since 2014: 
·           How you can support weather@homeANZ;  ·           reports published; 
·           background to weather@home;  ·           experiments in progress; 
·           Dr Suzanne Rosier explaining weather@homeANZ (video);  ·           experiments being prepared; 
·           Mitchell Black explains some more (video); ·           meet the scientists involved;
·           Is it just an academic exercise? NO  
·           Understanding climate models (2 videos) How does it all work:
Signing up: ·           experiment to report; 
·           before signing up – check this information;  ·           how many Ozzies and Kiwis involved; 
·           initial steps;   
·           practical stuff from climateprediction.net  
   


Also refer to “Mainstreaming our changing climate” – the attribution page, as they are closely related. 

Background to weather@home

Weather@home is a group of regional climate modelling experiments within climateprediction.net. With the support of climateprediction.net scientists are able to design experiments that answer questions they otherwise could not answer without large climate model ensembles. However, most extreme weather events take place on a much smaller scale that the global models can’t show. For this the weather@home project was created! Weather@home allows the running of regional climate models to answer the question: how does climate change affect our weather. Weather@home helps to answer this question. It is a family of regional climate models for a growing number of regions around the world. Weather@home can investigate how the odds of extreme weather events change due to man-made climate change and natural climate variability.

Image result for climatepredictionnet

With weather@home you can run the model simulating the weather in your native part of the world. Weather@home also makes climateprediction.net a truly international project, as participants and the scientists who analyse the data come from all over the world. The fact that local scientists are collecting and analysing the data is important as it means that any results from the project are underpinned by local knowledge, making them even more relevant to people’s daily lives.

For more background on climateprediction.net access wikipedia entry

Listen to Suzanne Rosier a scientist from NIWA, New Zealand, explaining more about the Weather@home ANZ experiment:

Mitchell Black explains some more…

Weather@home ANZ is a collaboration among  the University of Oxford, the UK Met Office, the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science in Australia, NIWA in New Zealand, the University of Melbourne and the University of Tasmania. Source of videos 

Is this just an academic exercise?? NO

The weather@home regional experiments are all part of the World Weather Attribution project (access “Mainstreaming our changing climate” here for more details). 

Professor David Karoly from the University of Melbourne (ED: Now in 2018 Leader of the National Environmental Science Programme Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub) initiated the Weather@home project in Australia and New Zealand, and said it could help clear up the ongoing debate about the connection between climate change and extreme weather events. There is uncertainty in the public about how much climate change has contributed to individual extreme events. People like the Prime Minister and the Minister for the Environment have commented that there is no link, while climate scientists say there is a connection,” said Professor Karoly. “We won’t be able to say climate change is the sole cause of extreme weather. What we want to do is look at the contribution of climate change to increasing the frequency and intensity of those extremes, particularly as we see heatwaves, record high temperature, drought and bushfires.” With the help of volunteers at home, the researchers will be able to conduct far more experiments than they could hope to on their own. “We need to run the simulations a lot of times because extremes are rare events and we might not get many of them if we just run the simulations once,” Professor Karoly said. (Article from The Conversation – 26/3/14 Access source here)

Legal implications of attribution studies

In a recent paper published in August in the journal Nature Geoscience, legal experts from the United States and the United Kingdom argued, “Improvements in attribution science are affirming the foreseeability of certain climatic events and patterns in specific locations, and in identifying increasing risks of consequential impacts on property, physical assets and people.” As a result, they wrote, attribution studies may inspire an increase in climate change litigation in the future.

As a general rule, extreme event attribution studies don’t predict the likelihood of a future event. They focus on how climate change has affected events that have already happened. Even the National Academy of Sciences report warned, “Attribution studies of individual events should not be used to draw general conclusions about the impact of climate change on extreme events as a whole.” But from a legal standpoint, the studies’ implications could be broader. Lindene Patton, a member of the legal team at the Earth &Water Group and one of the authors of the Nature Geoscience paper, noted that as more and more attribution studies are released, they could accumulate a body of evidence suggesting that events occurring today are being influenced by climate change—meaning governments and businesses should be prepared for similar events in the future.

When the science changes, when a body of knowledge to which a responsible professional is expected to keep up with and understand and pay attention to—when that changes, it changes what they have to do to protect people,” she told E&E News. “It changes the standard of care.”

HOWEVER: …..Michael Burger, executive director of Columbia Law School’s Sabin Center for Climate Change Law, cautioned that the field likely has some serious maturing to do before it becomes a major tool for climate litigation. There’s no standardized method for conducting all attribution studies, he noted. Different research groups tend to use different models, ask different questions or use different criteria for selecting the events they investigate, making individual analyses difficult to compare. “In court, expert testimony doesn’t need to reflect a consensus view,” Burger said. “It does need to be based, however, on established methodologies. And here, it’s not clear that we’re at the point yet where we have those established methodologies.”

But that point may be coming. Some scientists hope to eventually launch a kind of standardized extreme event attribution service, similar to a weather forecasting service, that would release immediate analyses—with the same uniform methods used for each one—for every extreme event that occurs. It’s still unclear what such a service might look like, but one could imagine receiving an email or smartphone notification each time an extreme heat wave or flood rolls through, explaining its connection to climate change. The Met Office (UK) is already working on such a project, although it’s in early stages. The European Prototype demonstrator for the Harmonisation and Evaluation of Methodologies for attribution of extreme weather Events, or EUPHEME, is an ongoing project designed to “build the bridge between science and an operational service,” according to Nikos Christidis, one of the scientists involved….. SOURCE FULL ARTICLE HERE

DO YOU WANT TO BE A REAL PART OF HELPING THIS PROCESS ALONG? SIGN UP HERE

Needing to understand how climate models work? 

Gavin Schmidt, Director of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies: The emergent patterns of climate change (2014). You can’t understand climate change in pieces, says climate scientist Gavin Schmidt. It’s the whole, or it’s nothing. In this illuminating talk, he explains how he studies the big picture of climate change with mesmerizing models that illustrate the endlessly complex interactions of small-scale environmental events. Access Ted Talks here

 


CLEX ( Chief Investigator Prof Christian Jakob at a recent Monash University STEM talk takes his audience ​into the world of climate models. It’s a talk that looks under the hood to see what powers modern climate models. Along the way he explains how climate models work, how they project future climates, where the uncertainties lie and digs down into the processes to give an insight into what they really are.

What has been happening since launch in 2014?

Reports published:

The roles of climate change and El Niño in the record low rainfall in October 2015 in Tasmania, AustraliaKaroly, D. J., M.T. Black, M.R. Grose and A. D. King [in “Explaining Extremes of 2015 from a Climate Perspective”]. Bull. Am. Met. Soc., 97, S127-S130. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0139.1Go to page »

Climate change was an important driver of southern Australia’s warmest October on record

Black, M.T., and D. J. Karoly [in “Explaining Extremes of 2015 from a Climate Perspective”]. Bull. Am. Met. Soc., 97, S118-S121. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0124.1

The weather@home regional climate modelling project for Australia and New Zealand

Black, M. T., Karoly, D. J., Rosier, S. M., Dean, S. M., King, A. D., Massey, N. R., Sparrow, S. N., Bowery, A., Wallom, D., Jones, R. G., Otto, F. E. L., and Allen, M. R Geoscientific Model Development; Katlenburg-Lindau9.9 (2016): 3161-3176

 

8 publications in special report rely on weather@home simulations to explain extreme weather events of 2014 in Australia, Africa and South America

Human-induced climate change plays a clear and significant role in some extreme weather events but understanding the other risks at a local level is also important, highlights Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society’s annual special report, Explaining Extreme Events of 2014 from a Climate Perspective. For the fourth year in a row it investigates the […]
Record hot October in Australia at least 6 times more likely due to global warmingWriting in The Conversation CPDN partners David Karoly and Mitchell Black provide a real-time assessment of the role human-induced climate change and the ongoing El Nino are playing in the record breaking October temperatures in Australia. The magnitude of the monthly mean anaomalies is huge, with 1 deg Celcisus above the previous October record for […]Go to page »
Launch of new weather@home experiment on the causes of recent heatwaves and drought in Australia and New Zealand

We’ve just launched another new regional modelling experiment looking at the link between climate change and the recent heatwaves and drought in Australia and New Zealand.

Go to page »

Weather@home ANZ 2013: the causes of recent heatwaves and drought in Australia and New Zealand

Mitchell Black explains the science behind this new project, and why we need your help to answer these important questions about the link between extreme weather and climate change: Weather@home 2013: the cause of recent Australian heat waves from Weather@home ANZ on Vimeo. NIWA, New Zealand, scientist Suzanne Rosier explains more about the Weather@home ANZ experiment: […]

Go to page »

Experiments in progress:

 

Experiments being prepared:

 

Access Server Status here: This will tell you if there are any tasks waiting and tasks in progress.

 

Meet the scientists that are working on weather@homeANZ

University of Melbourne:

 

National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (WIWA – NewZealand)

 

University of Tasmania 

 

How does it all work – from experiment to report

 

 

 

 

How many Ozzies and Kiwis are signed up to weather@home as of: ………………

Help increase participation by promoting to friends, family and colleagues – send them a link to this page 

For more information contact Friends of weather@homeANZ: Hazen 

Before signing up check out this information first

 

How much data is sent each way and how frequently? Downloading the BOINC manager and the model to run are usually the largest downloads. The BOINC manager is around 10MB, or 90MB for the combined BOINC + virtual box download. There are two types of upload:

  1. Trickles of typically up to 100KB with frequency in the region of once per 24 hours of processing.
  2. Uploads of typically 20MB once per model year processed with frequency in the region of once per 120 hours of processing.

 

How much disk space do the models take up? The biggest model is HadCM3N, which can take up to 2GB per model, immediately before producing a zip file for sending to the project at the 25%, 50%, 75%, and 100% marks. That is, the disk space consumed by the task grows during processing up to about this limit, and then shrinks back down when the zip file is produced, before starting to increase again as processing continues. Other models are considerably smaller.     

Do I have to leave my computer running all the time? The model can only run when you have your computer switched on.Note that the extra greenhouse gas emission generated by the use of your PC is very small. However, whenever you need to switch your computer off, the simulation will restart from the checkpoint before the last place it reached when you next switch the computer on. You only need to connect to the internet at the beginning and at the end of the experiment to return data to us.
Do I need to be on-line all the time while the software runs? Absolutely not. Once you have installed the software and registered with the project, you are free to disconnect from the internet. As your computer reaches trickle points, it will (if set to allow network access) automatically try to “trickle” a small amount of data which is used by the project to track the progress of your experiment. If no network connection is allowed or if it is unable to connect, the trickle will be stored up until the next successful communication. It is not essential to trickle data. However, an internet connection is required for the final upload of data whenever you finish an experiment. Messages will appear in BOINC giving a large amount of detail about how this upload is progressing. The files are split up into five compressed “zip” files, and can be incrementally uploaded (i.e. you can pause/resume or exit/resume and so not have to download the entire file if an initial upload was interrupted).

 

2.2 How do I know when I have got it set up and running properly? If you can open the BOINC manager, check you have a climateprediction.net task under tasks and it is marked as running. If the task is suspended rather than running then this may be because you have set BOINC to only run when you are not using the computer. In this case it will work much better if you have selected the option to keep in memory while suspended and you can complete checking that it is working properly by:

  1. Leaving your computer on for at least an hour without using it for other intensive work for all that time
  2. Then look at the running task in BOINC manager and if the % complete is greater than 0.00% then all is fine.

If you have completed more than 24 hours of processing time on a model check that trickles are reporting.

Signing up – Initial steps

The Basics…..

How to join the climateprediction.net experiment. Taking part involves a number of steps – please follow these instructions to get started:

1. Background Information

Please read this background information before you begin:

2. Download the BOINC client

Climateprediction.net runs on the BOINC client – this is a generic platform for distributed computing, which you can use to run a number of different projects. In order to run our project, you will need to go to the BOINC website and download the client. Follow this link to the BOINC website: Download BOINC (the website automatically detects which operating system you are running)

Continue through the rest of the six steps – climateprediction.net  – and you will be on your way 

To ensure that your involvement will prioritise the Australia/New Zealand region it is important that this is indicated in your “preferences for this project”

From “Your Account” page in climate prediction.net:

Preferences
When and how BOINC uses your computer Computing preferences
Message boards and private messages Community preferences
CLICK ON: Preferences for this project climateprediction.net preferences

 

Run only the selected applications UK Met Office HadAM3P-HadRM3P Europe: no
UK Met Office HadAM3P-HadRM3P Pacific North West: no
SELECT: UK Met Office HadAM3P-HadRM3P Australia New Zealand: yes
UK Met Office HadAM3P (global only) with MOSES II landsurface scheme: no
UK Met Office HadAM3P-HadRM3P Africa: no
UK Met Office Coupled Model Full Resolution Ocean: no
UK Met Office HadCM3 short: no
Weather At Home 2 (wah2): no
Weather At Home 2 (wah2) (region independent): no
If no work for selected applications is available, accept work from other applications? yes or no 

 

Practical Stuff – from climateprediction.net

Climateprediction.net support and advice on using the BOINC software includes a discussion board, and statistics on participants and teams.

FAQ

Before contacting us, please read the FAQ (Frequently Asked Questions) – we have two FAQs, one that answers questions about climate science and modelling, and another that answers technical questions about BOINC and running the project.

Server Status

If your climate model isn’t running, it’s possible there is a problem with the servers that run the project. Please visit the Server Status page to see if there are any known problems.

Discussion board

The BOINC discussion board is a good place to visit on a regular basis to see what other users are doing. Use your climateprediction.net login to get involved and post comments.

The forum is also where to ask questions about BOINC-related technical problems, or to see what other participants have suggested. Access Discussion board here

BOINC statistics and user profile

You can access and customise your user profile – email address, password, team participation and preferences on when your computer is available for use by the project.

There’s a range of statistics about the experiment. You’ll be able to see:

  • how many CPU cycles you’ve contributed to the project
  • how many years of model time you’ve simulated

You’ll be able to compare these against other participants’ data and compare some of the data from your run against the experiment as a whole: for example, say you’ve simulated 30 years of the period 1950 to 2000 – is your world hotter or colder than the average? Wetter or drier?

Access BOINC user pages here