PLEA Network

1 December 2017, CSIRO/ECOS, How to plan for decisions in the midst of bushfire catastrophe. SHOULD I stay or should I go? It’s a tricky question to contemplate and for many people choosing to stay when a fire comes will depend on a number of circumstances. This is determined by whether a person is physically or emotionally capable of surviving the ordeal, whether the building they will stay and actively defend is suitable and whether they have the equipment and water up to the job. For many, this conversation will lead to the conclusion that leaving early is the safest option. This means having somewhere that is safe and practical to go and the means to get there. What the statistics tell us CSIRO leading bushfire risk expert Dr Justin Leonard and his team at CSIRO had the difficult task of analysing people’s experiences while sheltering in and around their homes during the 2009 February fires in Victoria. Funded by the Australian Government, the project (and subsequent 2015 report) aimed to examine circumstances and challenges experienced by residents when sheltering in order to establish evidence to support policy reform and community education initiatives. The report states that 1007 people sheltered during fires on Black Saturday, of those people 169 died. The scientists discovered through statistical analysis that the number of people “actively” sheltering had the strongest chance of surviving. This factor stood out above all others, including obvious factors like forest proximity, in determining probability of survival. “The people that were proactive while they were sheltering had the best chance of surviving,” Leonard says. “While they were sheltering inside their home they were monitoring the fire, shutting off rooms that were burning and retreating to an exit. Once the house lost tenability, they would leave the house. This was compared to people who sheltered in a bathroom and didn’t move and were unaware of what was happening around them. Conditions outside may have been survivable but they didn’t know.” ..Learning from harsh experience: Malcolm Hackett and Diana Robertson live on a cattle farm at Strathewen, 45km north-east of Melbourne’s CBD. They lost their home and beloved family dog in the Black Saturday fires and have an evolved perspective on how they would survive another major bushfire. Read More here